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Tocca alla Libia: ecco perché e a chi conviene.

(...) To understand what is happening in Tripoli must first consider the strategic framework. We are not addressed in the face of spontaneous, but induced aiming to replicate what happened in North Africa in the late eighties in the former Soviet Union. Even then, the revolt started from a small country, Lithuania, and at first no one imagined that the fire could spread to neighboring countries and it was even conceivable that the USSR would implode. The Maghreb is not the Soviet Union and there is no superstructure to blow up, but otherwise the similarities are obvious. Tunisia is the smallest of the countries of the region and served as a detonator for other times. A wheel fell on the Mubarak regime, Libya is in turmoil, Iran and maybe tomorrow, maybe on the wave, Algeria, Morocco, Syria. What had in common schemes Tunisian, Libyan and Egyptian? Being ruled by authoritarian leaders, now old, discredited, they thought of spending power in young or incompetent loyalists.

It is no secret: the riots were widely encouraged - and in many ways prepared - by the U.S. government

. For some time, Washington believed the inevitable explosion of popular discontent and fearing it will lead the revolt could be extremists or Islamic extremist groups, held in what looks like a controlled explosion, at least in Egypt and Tunisia. Why is it controlled? Because before you embarrass Ben Ali and Mubarak, the Obama administration has cemented the already rock-solid relationship with the armies, which in fact never lost control of the situation and were the architects of the revolution. Do not Forget it today in Cairo and Tunis commanding generals, who in future will exert a decisive influence. Washington has won twice, has secured for many years to come, the loyalty of these two countries and has scored an extraordinary operation of the image, showing the world that America is the people's side and democracy even in regimes until yesterday friends.

The dynamics are different because Gaddafi of Libya was not a U.S. ally and because the NGOs linked to the U.S. government have not been able to establish contacts and links with the Libyan civil society, in short, were unable to fertilize the soil in which to sprout revolt. But that exploded the same. For infection and not feeding the loyalty of the army, but his discontent. As in all revolutions, are the armed forces to determine the outcome of popular revolts. Gaddafi charged at this time the mistakes of the past. As noted by Domenico Quirico the press, the Colonel, an old man what was the coup, has never fidato dei generali e ha proceduto a numerose purghe. Gli uomini in divisa per 42 anni lo hanno temuto, ma non lo hanno mai davvero amato. Così ora molti di loro o si danno alla fuga o passano con i rivoltosi soprattutto nelle città lontane da Tripoli. Gheddafi può contare solo sulle milizie private e su una piccola parte dell’esercito; è questa la ragione di una mossa altrimenti inspiegabile come quella di reclutare centinaia o forse migliaia di miliziani africani.

La conseguenza è inevitabile: sangue, sangue e ancora sangue. L’impressione è che Gheddafi alla fine sarà costretto a fuggire. L’immagine, ridicola, del Raìs in auto con l’ombrello ricorda quella di Saddam Hussein braccato dagli Americans in the days of the fall of Baghdad. In any case, the situation could be very embarrassing for Italy. If the regime falls, Libya would again be the port of departure for our coastline for tens of thousands of immigrants. If you were to stand, it would be embarrassing for us to maintain good relations with a bloodthirsty leader. And in both cases millionaires dance contracts for our companies. Eni in the head. Let us not forget: Most of our energy supply depends on its own from North Africa. The explosion "controlled" is likely to be, however, devastating to the interests of our country

* . We have no choice and Italy can hardly influire sugli eventi, ma è inevitabile chiedersi: il prezzo è giusto?

Tratto da:

http://www.legnostorto.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31330

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Il primo effetto della crisi libica per l’Italia è stata la sospensione della fornitura di gas libico attraverso il gasdotto Greenstream che collega la costa nordafricana al terminale di Gela. Una nota dell’Eni ne ha attribuito la causa ad una temporanea sospensione di alcune attività di produzione di gas naturale in Libia. L’Eni ha comunque assicurato di essere in grado di far fronte alla domanda di gas da parte dei its customers, given that Libya covers only 12% of our needs. (...) In fact, Italy imports gas from various countries, through a graduated system of sources and pipelines. Other suppliers are Algeria, Italy (33%), Russia (30%) and Holland (19%). (...) But despite the assurances of the government, the possible decay of the Libyan crisis with plunging the country into civil war with a relative power vacuum could lead to serious consequences such as to undermine the still timid economic recovery of European countries. The increase in oil prices, which now has well over the limit of $ 100 per barrel for Brent, one treated on the London market, will worsen the trade balance, increase inflation and cause pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. Such concerns are particularly acute for our country, because of the possible effect of patchy, fears a partial or total block of not only supplies but also Libyan gas to the Algerian (at the end of Mazara del Vallo). (...) As to alternative suppliers, according to the assessment of Snam (ENI subsidiary that manages the national network of gas) when there is room to increase imports from Russia, although in that case there could be consequences economic operators have not yet obtained renegotiation of contracts with Gazprom .(...)

From: http://www.rinascita.eu/index.php?action=news&id = 6662 (The Libyan gas does not reach there in Italy).

Gaddafi Speaks: I am the leader of a revolution, not a president. Muammar Gaddafi "I am the leader of a revolution, not a president. I do not have a mandate from which to resign," and therefore will die as a martyr, as a fighter che resiste fino all'ultima goccia di sangue.

Per settantacinque minuti il leader libico ha urlato rabbioso contro i "ratti che hanno invaso le strade", contro le "bande di giovani drogati e ubriachi" che assaltano le caserme e le stazioni di polizia. Il Colonnello si è rivolto ai suoi sostenitori che lo ascoltavano nella Piazza Verde di Tripoli: "Uscite dalle vostre case, scendete in strada. Cacciate i nemici, andate a prenderli fin dentro le loro tane". "Indossate una fascia verde come riconoscimento, a partire da domani andate e combattete, ripulite la Libia casa per casa!". "Liberate Bengasi!" È il vero punto di non ritorno, è il momento dello scontro finale e, presumibilmente, blood will flow in rivers. "So far I have not ordered you shoot even one bullet, but when I do, everything will be in flames." It then turns to the family of the young protesters: "They are young, have no faults have been manipulated, drugged and drunk by the servants of the devil. Them back home." Because from tomorrow there will be no more excuses. from his residence in Tripoli - and then became a national monument - bombed "the 170 American fighters" in 1986, the Rais of Tripoli has claimed responsibility for the national pride of Libya, a country "that world leaders now fear everyone." His attacks are cross, his enemies are the devil West - United States and Britain - to extremists Muslims who would like to turn Libya into a "base of Al-Qaeda." "You want this?". "That the U.S. occupying Libya as they did with Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia to eradicate Islamic extremism?" The state TV camera repeatedly lingers on the monument placed outside the residence: the golden Libyan fist crushing a U.S. fighter.

The speech has always been, for the remainder of the track of the attack: that the West wants to reopen the era of colonialism, against Arab TV broadcasters who gave the world a distorted view of the people of the brave, patriotic youth ", which is the true face of Libya, not shown by cowards paid for by ' group of patients who acts from the outside ".

" Tomorrow "provides Gaddafi," the order and security will be restored throughout the country. "The leader gave the command: army and police will have to crush the revolt.

From:

http://eurasia.splinder.com/